Trend Monitoring

The Trend Monitoring Report is a SID initiative which is produced on a monthly basis and is supported by the Rockefeller Foundation. Building on its extensive experience in horizon scanning and scenario building in East Africa, SID is engaging in this new monitoring exercise which aims to analyze the evolving dynamics in the Greater Horn of East Africa in relation to five key topics: poverty and equity; migration and urbanization; resource-based conflicts; information & communication technology and state-citizen relations; regional integration. The trend analysis and monitoring report will be published on a monthly basis (from January 2010) in order to provide relevant, insightful, and timely knowledge on some of the most significant dynamics occurring in the region and their impact on citizens, society and development in the Greater Horn of Africa. This work links closely to SID's work on scenarios with the ultimate objective to inform and catalyze a policy oriented and forward looking conversation at regional level with key actors from across different sectors.

Geographic scope and rationale
The Greater Horn of East Africa (GHEA) is the location of some of the world's greatest development challenges: deep and seemingly entrenched poverty and inequality, political instability and conflict which generates refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs); frequent droughts which trigger additional migrations. But it is not all doom and gloom. The region also exhibits dynamism (innovation in cell-phone based financial services), resilience (Somaliaís thriving 'non-states' of Puntland and Somaliland) and a tremendous capacity for deliberate social regeneration and renewal (Rwanda). The Greater Horn of Eastern Africa (GHEA) includes Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Somalia/Somaliland/Puntland, Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea and Djibouti.

The five topics can be organized into a framework comprising of the core human welfare challenge of poverty and inequity. Responses to this core challenge include migration and urbanization and contest for natural resources as individuals and communities seek better prospects and opportunities. The adoption and adaptation of new technology especially (ICT) offers new scope for both income generation and its redistribution. Technology also facilitates new forms of self-organization and affiliation unmediated by government. Regional integration is a large inter-governmental response to the poverty challenge, and its instructive to explore whether and how governments are leading or lagging their citizens' integrationist instinct and activities.

The Trend Monitor Observatory's Blog and the Greater Horn Quarterly's Blog do feature and collect all the reports produced so far.