Scenarios

Energy for Whom? Scenarios for Eastern Africa
In 2016, SID launched an ‘Energy Futures’ initiative that sought to look at possible future scenarios for energy and how these would affect energy poverty in four selected countries of Eastern Africa. The results of this initiative will challenge the conventional wisdom that positive social and economic development can be expected soon after the grid is expanded. Even though national power grids are expanding, the quality of power that is on offer still leaves much to be desired. Frequent brownouts and blackouts mean that the national grid cannot be relied on. Furthermore, and perhaps more importantly, the cost of energy from the grid is still priced beyond the reach of many East Africans. This makes a mockery of the fanfare that has accompanied the electrification programmes and ignores an emerging reality of smaller micro- and mini-grids that are providing affordable power to local communities. Relying mostly on renewable sources for energy generation, they offer an alternative paradigm to the large power-generation projects that are being pushed by the governments. The analysis emerging from this initiative and the three scenarios presented challenge us to imagine different ways the region might meet its energy needs in the period towards 2050 within a context of complex political and economic transitions coupled with looming ecological and climate limits. The report has been produced by the Society for International Development with the support of The Heinrich Böll Stiftung, East and Horn of Africa Regional Office.
Greater Horn Quarterly
New SID Futures publication monitoring trends and offering insights on current issues within the Greater Horn region.
Trend Monitoring Report Series
A SID initiative sponsored by the Rockefeller Foundation with the aim of monitoring and analyzing key trends and patterns in the Greater Horn of Eastern Africa Region.
Searching for a More Perfect Union? Scenarios for Kenya’s Constitutional Referendum
As part of its contribution to broadening public debate around democratic transition in Kenya, SID gathered a team of experts to think through some scenarios. These scenarios explore some of the challenges and options involved for all Kenyans – before, during and after the 2010 referendum convened to decide whether or not to adopt a new constitution.
East African Scenarios to 2040 - What do we want? What might we become?
This publication presents three possible alternative futures for the region. I want to be a Star is a story about a region spell-bound by the promise of her natural riches and beauty. She welcomes all suitors and hands them control over her destiny. I want a Visa tells of an executive elite which deploys state power with ambition and dynamism, and discovers the limits of its capacity to control. Usiniharakishe describes the struggle by ordinary East Africans to retain and reclaim control over their most local assets and who learn that success is not guaranteed.
East African Scenarios Project Research Compendium
The research compendium presents the output of a research process which started in February 2005 when a group of East Africans met to identify and discuss the major challenges and opportunities facing the region as it sought to consolidate and expand economic, social and ultimately political integration through the East African Community. The compendium's 10 chapters were written by East Africans from academia, policy analysis and civil society.
The Story of Uganda: The Uganda Scenarios Project
This booklet presents scenarios stories about three possible futures that Uganda might face in the coming years, with regards to the big question facing the country of finding the best way to deal with its transition. Looking at the coming two decades, the stories try to explore the paths Uganda might take over this period and what the implications of such trajectory might be. This booklet is one of the outcome of the Uganda Scenarios Project, an initiative undertaken by SID in conjunction with the SID Uganda Chapter.
Tutafika: Imaging our Future, Tanzania
Tutafika imagines three possible futures for Tanzania as a response to two crucial questions discussed by a group of 40 young Tanzanians: Who are we? And Where are we going? Three futures are imagined: Yale Yale – a stagnant country in which nothing changes, at least not for the better; Mibaka Uchumi – where political power and economic resources are captured for private benefit; and Amka Kumekucha - a future shaped by adversity but founded on the strengths of social network and created by a shared commitment to respond with imagination.
Kenya at the Croassroads: Scenarios for our future
As a result of the Kenya Scenario Building Project undertaken by the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) in collaboration with SID between 1998 and 2000, this booklet describes four possible futures Kenya could face over the next 10 to 15 years. Amongst the others, one message highlighted here is that it is time for Kenya to unlearn the ideas and habits that have driven the country thus far and to learn double-quick and change direction in fundamental ways. Quick fixes have not been working and it would be unrealistic and foolhardy for Kenya keep applying them.