The Cost of Future Conflict in Sudan: A new report by Frontier, ISS and SID
'Increased violence following the referendum could cost more than US$100 billion'
50 days ahead of the referendum on independence for Southern Sudan, a new report by Frontier (Europe) in cooperation with the Nairobi-based Institute of Security Studies and the Society for International Development - explores the potential costs of renewed conflict in Sudan for the country, the region and the international community.
Due to the difficulties in estimating future costs, the report analyses the potential impact of four alternative scenarios: low, medium, and high conflict scenarios and a peace scenario and presents four different paths for economic growth and humanitarian and peacekeeping expenditure.
The analysis, as reported on Frontier's website, indicates that increased violence following the referendum could cost more than US$100 billion in total, with possible costs to Sudan itself of over US$50 billion, to neighbouring countries of over US$25 billion and to the international community in excess of US$30 billion. Compared to the other countries in the region, the loss could be particularly high for Kenya, which would loose $11.5 billion in case of a medium conflict scenario in the next 10 years and $18.3 billion in the next 10 years in case of a high conflict scenario.
As Duncan Okello, the Regional Director of the Society for International Development, points out in Business Daily 's article 'The forecast shows that regional private sector, especially in Kenya, should take a proactive role to ensure the referendum is held according to the law to forestall any conflict' (...) 'What we have seen so far is the private sector taking an attitude of ëbusiness as usual', which is not good. It should instead be proactive to ensure the referendum is held successfully and take more interest in the post-referendum period to ensure the governance structures in case of a split are good for business growth in South Sudan.
The launch of the report, organized by SID, ISS and Crisis Action, took place on November 25th at the Nairobi Serena Hotel and was attended by some leading private sector investors in Southern Sudan including East African Breweries and Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) among others.
Read more: Business Daily, 'Kenya will suffer massive losses if Sudan goes to war', by Steve Mbogo, November 26, 2010. Click here
About the organizations:
Frontier Economics Limited is an independent consulting group based in London, specialist in the use of business and economics to make better decision decisions. They work across public policy, strategy, regulation and competition issues.
The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) is a human security research institution working towards a stable and peaceful Africa characterized by sustainable development, human rights, the rule of law, democracy, collaborative security and gender mainstreaming.