Sudan, a critical year ahead

On January, 9 Sudan feted the 5th anniversary of the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), inaugurating its last year “in office”. On January, 9, 2011 the CPA will expire and a new, independent South Sudan might see the light through an autodetermination referendum. The year ahead is thus fundamental for Sudan’s and Sudanese people’s lives and future. In this way goes the latest Chatham House report on Africa’s largest country, Decisions and deadlines: a critical year for Sudan.

CPA 5th anniversary was marked in Sudan by exchanges of accusations (Sudan Tribune) between senior officials from both the National Congress Party and the Sudan’s people liberation movement over failure to “make unity attractive” to Southern Sudanese. Al-Dardiry Mohamed Ahmed, a leading NCP figure, was quoted by local press as saying that the separation of the south from the north became the “reality and inevitable”, blaming the SPLM for this outcome. If the South’s secession cannot be averted, emphasis must be put on the process, which in Dardiri’s words should be “smooth, peaceful and attractive” to prevent any return to war and allow for “brotherly relations” between North and South Sudan in a post secession scenario.

Answering to al-Dardiri’s accusations, the SPLM’s deputy secretary general for the Northern sector, Yasir Arman, placed the blame on the NCP saying the latter deals with the country’s major issues “in a moody manner” accusing it of fueling conflicts and tribal clashes. Malik Agar, SPLM’s deputy chairperson and governor of Blue Nile state, was even clearer warning that the secession of the South could lead to insecurity and war in Abyei and the Nuba Mountains.

2009 was marked by a surge of insecurity and local-based conflicts in some southern states. And 2010 has not begun any better: on January, 7 at least 139 people ( Reuters) were killed and 5000 animals were seized in Tonj East, when Nuer gunmen attacked Dinka cattleherders.

Excerpt from Chatham House report’s executive summary:

“…Southern Sudan’s route to self-determination shapes the decisions and deadlines of the coming year. But it is not the only big question in the year ahead. The long war that started in the South spread to or inspired other conflicts in Northern peripheries neglected or abused by Sudan’s powerful centre. Darfur and three areas along the troubled and populous border between North and South Sudan (Abyei, Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan) all have referendums or consultations aimed at letting them pass judgment on Sudan’s unstable political order. And the NCP and SPLM will both face their first credible electoral test in April 2010. All these processes are supposed to answer the wider problem of self-determination in Sudan – whether the Sudanese state represents the interests of all Sudan’s peoples, or only those of the elites in the powerful rich centre and their clients. (…)

If Southern Sudan chooses unity in January 2011, its army needs to be integrated with that of the central government within 90 days – a daunting task, given that the two armies now confront each other along the length of the border. If it chooses secession, an independent state will be born as soon as the vote is announced. But independence is more than secession. Independence cannot happen without a whole range of agreements on fraught questions. Assets need to be divided – oil revenues, water, national infrastructure and other assets. Nationality needs to be defined. Any new currency will need to come into circulation at a price that is sensitive to the interests of many different economic groups. (…)

This report makes several recommendations for Sudanese leaders and international actors:

* Engagement with people: Sudan’s powerful elites need to reach agreement on a wide range of complex processes in the coming year. They also need to start an engagement with the country’s diverse populations, if they are to avoid perpetuating the politics of exclusion and conflict and help citizens participate in the big decisions facing the country.

* International engagement: The CPA’s international and regional supporters need to work together to support the final act of the CPA, paying attention to local as well as national and international dimensions of the peace process.

* Security: Breakdowns in security in Darfur, Kordofan and most states of Southern Sudan undermine popular engagement in elections, referendums and other processes. Both parties need to address the urgent need for local peace in the coming year, and the UN and other international actors should support them.

* Support for elections: International actors need to provide adequate support for elections, Popular Consultations and the referendums while recognizing that these processes will complicate politics in regions of Sudan that are not at peace.

* Post-referendum arrangements: In the event of Southern secession, the two parties to the CPA need to reach deals on security arrangements, oil revenues, nationality and a host of other issues. In the event of unity, some of these issues may need review. Primary responsibility for these processes lies with the two parties. But both CPA supporters and foreign investors need to work together to limit the possibility of failure.”

Written by: Irene

Filed Under: Conflict, Sudan Observatory

Tags: Conflict, CPA, referendum

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About Irene

Irene Panozzo (Dr.) is researcher and journalist, expert of Sudanese history and politics. Irene’s research work has been focusing on Sudan for more than ten years, with a particular focus on North-South relationship. Her research interests also include the Chinese presence in Africa and the international relations of African countries. Irene holds a bachelor’s in International and Diplomatic Sciences from the University of Trieste and a PhD in History, Institutions and International Relations of Extra European Countries from the University of Pisa.

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